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Re: To a better world - Sergey - 01-19-2009
Ukrainian Wrote:Please, without taking personal,can somebody answer for the question:How can be possible that Russian as Company "Gasprom"is not responsible for their own clients in EUROPEAN Union?
Dear friend, it was well know before the crisis that Gazprom is able to stop gas supplies trough Ukrraine.
Ukrainian Wrote:How can become possible in Europe in XXI century that the Company took measures cutting gas supply without any officially proved cases against their transit partner and without agreement and warning of their clients in Europe?
I suppose that the clients were well aware about this possibility and some (as Germany) have built huge gas storages just not to be hit by gas supplies interrupts. Unfortunately some countries as Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia were not prepared. However, Ukraine could help them. Ukraine has huge gas reserves (especially in the Western part of the country) and technically it would be possible to make gas exchange operations meanwhile resolving the problem with Russian partners. Russian gas could be pumped into Eastern part of Ukraine and Slovakia could be supplied with equal amounts of gas. It would be mutually profitable operation.
Ukrainian Wrote:Will we go to the better world on those prinsiples?
The principles should include the principles of free market. You don't pay in time - you must pay fines. You don't pay at all - you will not get goods. You get goods that don't belong to you - you are not a business partner and you could be voided the very possibility to take goods.
It looks like Russia and Ukraine are on the way to establish transparent, purely market relations in the gas sphere. It's for good only and we will remain friends further.
Re: Putin accuses Ukraine of holding Europe hostage over gas row - sektor_Gaza - 01-19-2009
NOT sektor_Gaza Wrote:sektor_Gaza Wrote:To solve gas dispute, let's organise an Ultimate Mix Fighting: Putin vs Yuschenko! The Loser will be HARDLY punished and FORCED to leave office! Agree??????????????????????
Does your mommy know that you are playing with her computer?
This site is provided as a service to the European Community. My apologies for previous messages to you. I had thought that I was dealing with an adult but your message here makes it clear that I am not.
So as you say, My Nezalezhna Ukrainska Friend, you must be quite old enough,
to go after you on ice not fearing to slide down accidentally, :-) as sand are falling from your old body :deg
Re: Putin accuses Ukraine of holding Europe hostage over gas row - sektor_Gaza - 01-19-2009
There are so many brothers Ukrainians here - I LOVE IT!
DO NOT FORGET: Hatred causes life to shorten! Get into positive feelings!
Re: Does anybody care about Russia-Ukraine gas conflict? - sektor_Gaza - 01-19-2009
Max Wrote:russian999 Wrote:You should gather your people and kick out all your hrushenkos
May be but it will not solve our problem of gas dependence on dictatorship, it will only deepen it. I have better idea: we should gain energy independence, alternative ways, devirsification and then... simply kick Russian gas off the markets of Europe and Ukraine. As moral compensation for troubles.
It's not the end of cheep gas age... it's also the end of Russian gas in Europe age.
Once I told you MAX.
The only think is left for you is to dream!
Ukraine is bankrupt. Cancel thinking on Russia's gas in EU. You'd better care of your own country and co-homies. If you're in the USA, send some humanitarian aid to Ukraine as it needs it a lot!
Re: To a better world - Guest - 01-19-2009
Thank You for Your answer.
The prinsiples of free market are clear.
There is still a question :do prinsiples of free market unclude that You can blame Your partner that He takes goods without any legal proof?DO PEOPLE OF THE COUNTRY of the partner SHOULD be involved and blamed for that too?
"The principles should include the principles of free market. You don't pay in time - you must pay fines. You don't pay at all - you will not get goods. You get goods that don't belong to you - you are not a business partner and you could be voided the very possibility to take goods.
It looks like Russia and Ukraine are on the way to establish transparent, purely market relations in the gas sphere. It's for good only and we will remain friends further.
Sergey
EU forum guest
Posts: 1
Joined: 16 Jan 2009, 13:13
How can become possible in Europe in XXI century that the Company took measures cutting gas supply without any officially proved cases against their transit partner and without agreement and warning of their clients in Europe?
I suppose that the clients were well aware about this possibility and some (as Germany) have built huge gas storages just not to be hit by gas supplies interrupts. Unfortunately some countries as Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia were not prepared. However, Ukraine could help them. Ukraine has huge gas reserves (especially in the Western part of the country) and technically it would be possible to make gas exchange operations meanwhile resolving the problem with Russian partners. Russian gas could be pumped into Eastern part of Ukraine and Slovakia could be supplied with equal amounts of gas. It would be mutually profitable operation."
There is second answer is not clear:
Doesn't the Company"GASPROM" have to take care about agreement with client,or it has power to do any measure without responsibily before its clients ?
Re: To a better world - Ukrainian - 01-19-2009
Thank You for Your answer.
The prinsiples of free market are clear.
There is still a question :do prinsiples of free market unclude that You can blame Your partner that He takes goods without any legal proof?DO PEOPLE OF THE COUNTRY of the partner SHOULD be involved and blamed for that too?
Sergey Wrote:The principles should include the principles of free market. You don't pay in time - you must pay fines. You don't pay at all - you will not get goods. You get goods that don't belong to you - you are not a business partner and you could be voided the very possibility to take goods.
Sergey Wrote:Ukrainian wrote:There is second answer is not clear:
How can become possible in Europe in XXI century that the Company took measures cutting gas supply without any officially proved cases against their transit partner and without agreement and warning of their clients in Europe?
I suppose that the clients were well aware about this possibility and some (as Germany) have built huge gas storages just not to be hit by gas supplies interrupts. Unfortunately some countries as Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia were not prepared. However, Ukraine could help them. Ukraine has huge gas reserves (especially in the Western part of the country) and technically it would be possible to make gas exchange operations meanwhile resolving the problem with Russian partners. Russian gas could be pumped into Eastern part of Ukraine and Slovakia could be supplied with equal amounts of gas. It would be mutually profitable operation.
Doesn't the Company"GASPROM" have to take care about agreement with client,or it has power to do any measure without responsibily before its clients ?
Re: Answer to Max - BK - 01-19-2009
Max Wrote:Stop speculations about certain prices, folks… No one knows anything for sure till papers are signed. It will be not 201$ but also not 450$. Besides once again accordingly to so called “formula” prices are set for every QUARTER. So we only can discuss prices for first quarter. Next quarter price will lower.
True. But the figures are not mere speculation. Do the math. Assume $450 for the first quarter and an average of $200 for the rest of the year. (based on fixed contractual formulas for pricing gas in relation to oil -- the price of gas is actually going to be less than @200 but we'll use $200 to make the point.) So 450x3months + 200x9months =3150/12 months = an average price of $262.50. NOW subtract the 20% discount and you get: $262.50 - 52.50 = an average price of $210. And if you do the same computation based on the figures of $400 and $150 the price comes out to $176 which is less than Ukraine was paying last year. Of course, this is overly simplified, but I think you get the point and when you also consider that RosUkrEnergos is no longer there to inflate the price, you will likely agree that Ukraine has done rather well at the negotiating table.
BK Wrote:...Russia and Ukraine will have lost most of their captive European market.
Max Wrote:Sorry BK, what market in EU Ukraine has exactly? We don’t sell anything to EU, we only transport. Since the Merkel declares “confidence in Russia is lost’ no one will build alternative ways for Russian gas. It will be still flowing only through Ukraine so we still have our lever, the transit rate.
Max, to the extent that Europe has been dependent upon Russia to supply AND Ukraine to deliver its gas (not one or the other but both), Europe may be considered a captive market for both countries. Any reduction in dependence upon Russian gas means less transit money for Ukraine.
Max Wrote:At the moment the cooperation with Russia is not profitable for us. If Russia will fail and stop export we will rebuild our GTS for Caspian pool… even if we stop it, it will not damage us economically at all.
Perhaps but it would not be as easy or painless as you make it seem. Personally, I think that Ukraine should immediately put out a tender to European countries/firms for help in revamping the GTS in exchange for a share of future transit fees and storage rights. Improved efficiency means higher profit and giving Europe a vested interest in the GTS will help restore Europe's confidence in Ukraine. Russia might not like this for nationalistic reasons, but frankly, why should Russia care or Ukraine care about what they think ?
Re: Does anybody care about Russia-Ukraine gas conflict? - r.user - 01-19-2009
Olaf Wrote:Russia is stealing natural resources (gas, oil, diamonds, wood) from native populations of Siberia.
Dozens of small north nations who are, in fact, the true owners of the land and resources that Russia sells to the West live poor and hard life. Life there is really hard not only because of the climate - there is nothing cheap there - just vodka - and alcoholism became a real problem for North nations of Russia.
But Moscow does not care about that - GAS and OIL is the most important thing - not native people of Sabiria! Its was always like that in 1950..the same in 2000....
Where are you from Olaf?
What are you saying about USA territory?
Putin loses hostages, refunds ransom money - BK - 01-19-2009
Moskal Wrote:As to the monitors. I WAS at the Dispatch Center of Gazprom last Friday (together with many journalists, including CNN and Bloomber TV). [Did you miss out on the drinks at the Ukr border on the return trip?] I know from the monitors (including foreign) deployed there that they are instructed by the EC NOT TO GIVE ANY INTERVIEWS. That perfectly illustrates the desire to find out the truth by the European Commission, doesn't it. This is No.1. [I assume that you also know that the reason for instructing monitors not to talk is because Russian media broadcast several highly inflammatory and misleading statements purportedly from EU monitors who were actually Russian monitors? Instructing the monitors not to speak to the press is intended to protect the truth, not hide it. A comprehensive and unbiased report based on the monitoring is likely to be released by the EU Commission once the gas is flowing and the political situation has cooled down.]
No. 2. Nabucco. Coincidentally it bypasses the Ukraine too. Let's now calculate a bit. Currently, the Ukrainian transportation system's capacity is about 140 bcm p.a. Nord Stream planned annual capacity is 55 bcm, South Stream - 30 bcm, and Nabucco - another 30 bcm. So, altogether they will not even make up the current Ukrainian system (in presumption it's gonna be excluded from the supplies). Hence Nabucco is not a competitor, but rather complements supplies to Europe. But only in case if it has supplies. Azerbaijani fields are not enough, while the Iranian gas is forbidden by US for obvious reasons. besides, if you look at the map, Nabucco is almost twice as long compared to SS. And finally CEOs of Gazprom and Italian ENI have just recently agreed to speed up the SS... For some reason.
Do not be surprised to see the scope of the Nabucco project expanded or to see the embargo on Iranian gas lifted at an opportune moment --opportune for the U.S. and Europe, that is.
And finally, the solution for the Ukraine has been found: $360 for this year (this includes 20% discount) provided unchanged transit fees @ $1.7. A handsome solution for Gazprom isn't it? Given its initial offer of $250, if you remember. Although, some report that the Ukrainian real sector cannot survive at anything higher than $250. But let Europeans help them (though I very much doubt they will).
The Russian offer of $250 was a fixed price. The current agreement calls for the price to be adjusted in line with the price of oil. International Experts estimate that the average cost of gas to Ukraine for 2009 will be between $201 and $220 which is less than the $235 that Ukraine offered to pay a few days before Russia shut off the gas. And the elimination of RusUkrEnergo will further lower the price. If you are as familiar with the gas-oil trade as you pretend to be, you already know this --so why the dissimulation of information?
Re: Reply to Valentine Akishkin et al - Moskal - 01-19-2009
bk Wrote:the crisis between Ukraine and Russia has never been about gas. Rather, it is about control.
Professor, you are here again! I am very pleased!
Yes, it's about control. And the war for Falklands was about control, as well as Iraq and Afganistan wars, as well as disintegration of Yugoslavia.... All these wars were about control. This gas war is about control too. But not only from the Russian side. EU and US are trying to gain control here as well. The only "minor" difference is that at least half of the pupulation of the Ukraine are Russians and the pipe for which the fight is being was built by the Soviet Union (i.e. "Russians" as well)
bk Wrote:Russia tends to see anything that they cannot control as a threat. Therefore,an independent Ukraine is a threat, a free Europe is a threat, the U.S. is a threat and ultimately, freedom itself is a threat.
Can Russia control, say, the Isle of White or BVI? Maybe the problem is about "national interests" - see above about the population and staff. You know all this, professor. You are just being deliberately lying and spinning here, like below:
bk Wrote:Paradoxically, it is this Russian perception of the world which enslaves Russia itself --and, since no nation wants to be controlled by another, it makes Russia a threat to them.
How pathetic, professor! This paroxysm is to justify your simple and straightforward Russophobia. Believe it or not (I don't care if you don’t), but Russia now is more free than the UK in many respects. I lived in London for years I can and have the right to compare. Can you find Jack London books with genuine texts in books stores in UK? I could not. I think because he is not politically correct now. that's only one example of your freedom. Another one I used to work off-staff for the BBC World Service. I saw censorship and propaganda myself. And I can give tons of examples like that.
bk Wrote:From its conduct, it is clear that Russia views itself not only as an equal but superior to both Europe and the U.S.
The history of the last four centuries shows the opposite. Your Brits were feeling yourself superior to all other peoples and nations all over the world. And now americans demonstrate the same as they sort of inherited your empire.
bk Wrote:it is nice to have self-confidence and a healty ego ---but only if they are grounded in reality. You have only to look at the sizes of their respective economies to know that Europe and certainly the U.S. do not see Russia as an economic threat but only as a potentially huge market for their own goods.Good advise - applicable to any nation and specifically to the US - but you are spinning again. Have you heard about BRIC countries? These four countries will change the whole world soon. This is what analysts say, not me. And btw, what do the States produce except stock market derivatives?
bk Wrote:That said Europe and the U.S. respect Russian accomplishments and recognise the invaluable assistance it could offer in making the world a better place. They look forward to the day that it will return that recognition and respect to them.We, Russians, care about your respect as much as you do about us. As a matter of fact, we don't respect Europeans for their cynicism and hypocrisy, particularly in this gas row. We have become quite pragmatic. Pay us what you owe, preferably upfront, and we'll take care of the rest.
bk Wrote:In terms of the current agreement, we still do not have an answer to the most important question, namely, whether RusUkrEnergo will continue to exist.Ask Mr USchenko - his older brother is tied to Mr. Firtash (owner of RUE 50% stake) and the USchenko clan covers for the shadow gas trading schemes.
bk Wrote:If not, then Europe can expect similar crises in the future.
Quite likely if Europe continues supporting any scoundrel against Russia, no matter who he is and what he does. As we say in Russia: "You can't climb a birch-tree without scratching your butt". Europe has to choose.
bk Wrote:But if RusUkrEnergo is eliminated (and its current independent contracts in Ukraine voided) then Russia will have lost a major source of its corruptive and destabilizing hold on Ukrainian politics. This is not just rhetoric
No, this is not. This is just a delirium. Gazprom gets just part of its profit from its 50% stake and that's all. Gazprom may well be corrupt, but beyond comparison to the Ukraine and its Orange Gang.
bk Wrote:according to Transparency International Russia is not only more internally corrupt than Ukraine but it is a leading national exporter of corruption.Provide please figures. Otherewise it is just the same old spin you are so used to based on your irrational hate for Russians!
bk Wrote:BK, Associate Professor of International Law[/color]
Btw, professor? Why Europeans are not allowed to hate or discuss in derogatory manner any nation, but Russians. Russophobia is something very common for English speaking newspapers.
By your russophobia you, the West have succeeded in one thing: now, we understand that stalinism, communism or whatever - they all just pretexts for you. The fundamental thing is your hate for Russia and Russians. You will lose ultimately, believe me, professor.
Re: It was Never About the Money! - SiD - 01-19-2009
BK Wrote:In sum, it is clear from the results of the negotiations that money was never the real issue, at least for Russia. So what was so important that both Russia and Ukraine not only severly damaged their reputations with Europe but are facing huge lawsuits? We may never really know.
We do know one thing: Russia and Ukraine have awakened a sleeping Europe. It is now very likely that they will pressure the U.S. to lift its embargo on Iran's gas. Iran has enough gas to flood the market. If so, then the price of gas will remain low and in three to five years time, Russia and Ukraine will have lost most of their captive European market.
Perhaps Europe eventually will be grateful for this gas war. The U.S. is certainly happy: they have been warning Europe that this might happen for years. So the only real losers are Russia and Ukraine. Who lost more? Only time will tell.
BK
Are you speaking about same Iran US are building missile defense against and that was/is frequently called thier next target? Becouse i do not understand something, insted of buyng from Russia that always speaks about cooperation in all spheres you suggest it is "better" to buy from Iran that is called "treat"? Parhaps i messed up something?
Re: Answer to Max - Max - 01-19-2009
BK Wrote:True. But the figures are not mere speculation. Do the math. Assume $450 for the first quarter and an average of $200 for the rest of the year. (based on fixed contractual formulas for pricing gas in relation to oil -- the price of gas is actually going to be less than @200 but we'll use $200 to make the point.) So 450x3months + 200x9months =3150/12 months = an average price of $262.50.
Now I see you made great job, it’s likely to be true. Now just don’t forget there is lag between oil and gas prices, 3-9 months accordingly to different sources. That’s why first two quarters price may be rather high but it will rapidly go down. That’s necessary.
We expect average year price of 250-260$. However I can’t support this because we have nothing from Prime-ministers yet. Julia Tymoshenko is already in Moscow, she will open numbers to public only after signing.
The transit rate is still same that’s why I openly express my doubts about how much the transit is economically expedient.
Quote:Max, to the extent that Europe has been dependent upon Russia to supply AND Ukraine to deliver its gas (not one or the other but both), Europe may be considered a captive market for both countries.
Yes I perfectly understand this but we only offer the service of transportation and just. Put there a coin and it will work, like automate in the park. No coin, no work. If seller-monopolist forces to work our GTS free or at loss, it will be not working too long. Yes, there is Energy Charter, moral and political obligations but companies work for profit first of all. I don’t think someone will deny economic rules soon.
Quote:Any reduction in dependence upon Russian gas means less transit money for Ukraine.
Oh men, what money? All these years it wasn’t actually business, it was barter - minimal non-market tariff rates in exchange of minimal non-market prices for gas. If Kremlin wants loud to implement with big some economics I really don’t know who will be damaged more and how exactly. Anyway, I don’t believe money for transit will be essential business for Ukraine. If so I have doubts about entire construction.
Quote:Perhaps but it would not be as easy or painless as you make it seem. Personally, I think that Ukraine should immediately put out a tender to European countries/firms for help in revamping the GTS in exchange for a share of future transit fees and storage rights.
Yes it will be extremely painful, with no doubts. It’s like to overcome the drug addiction. However, the addiction will be mortal anyway. Alternative suppliers, alternative ways, alternative origins, reduction of gas share in macroeconomics… this is only way to stay alive when certain company is “not market player but political weapon”.
Today alienation of GTS is prohibited for all, including EU. And its efficiency actually doesn’t depend on confidence. However besides the property rights we may invent large scale of cooperation ways. I think political conjecture inclines to broadest cooperation with EU… this may be monitoring and future projects with new sources and routes of gas.
Quote:Russia might not like this for nationalistic reasons, but frankly, why should Russia care or Ukraine care about what they think ?
I believe my way of conversation shows vividly how much we care about their opinion.
Re: To a better world - Sergey - 01-19-2009
Ukrainian Wrote:Thank You for Your answer.
The prinsiples of free market are clear.
There is still a question :do prinsiples of free market unclude that You can blame Your partner that He takes goods without any legal proof?
Thank you for your comments.
I believe that there is a lot of gas meters on Russian side of the border, on Ukrainian one, in Slovakia, in Hungary, in Moldova and so on. So it is not too hard task to make calculations. And Ukrainian side indeed confirmed that some gas was taken from the pipe. At least from formal point of view Naftogaz was taking something that was not belonged to it without permission.
I predict your objection. You could say that Ukraine needs so called technical gas. Ukraine using principles of free market could buy it from Norway, from European firms that import gas from Russia, from Gazprom for market price. It would be absolutely correct from legal point of view approach.
Of course, Ukraine could demand market price for transit. It would be only fair. But the scheme where Russia pumps as much it thinks it should and Ukraine gets as much as it wishes is too far from normal market relations.
Ukrainian Wrote:DO PEOPLE OF THE COUNTRY of the partner SHOULD be involved and blamed for that too?
We both with my wife (she is Ukrainian) have a lot of relatives in Ukraine. For example by cousin (at 3/4 Ukrainian, while I'm on 1/2) worked on Chernobyl station all the years after the disaster. Of course our relatives could be severely affected by the crisis if it would continue.
However I don't see another viable method to force Ukrainian leadership to play by the rules determined by the principles of free market.
Ukrainian Wrote:Sergey Wrote:The principles should include the principles of free market. You don't pay in time - you must pay fines. You don't pay at all - you will not get goods. You get goods that don't belong to you - you are not a business partner and you could be voided the very possibility to take goods.Sergey Wrote:Ukrainian wrote:There is second answer is not clear:
How can become possible in Europe in XXI century that the Company took measures cutting gas supply without any officially proved cases against their transit partner and without agreement and warning of their clients in Europe?
I suppose that the clients were well aware about this possibility and some (as Germany) have built huge gas storages just not to be hit by gas supplies interrupts. Unfortunately some countries as Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia were not prepared. However, Ukraine could help them. Ukraine has huge gas reserves (especially in the Western part of the country) and technically it would be possible to make gas exchange operations meanwhile resolving the problem with Russian partners. Russian gas could be pumped into Eastern part of Ukraine and Slovakia could be supplied with equal amounts of gas. It would be mutually profitable operation.
Doesn't the Company"GASPROM" have to take care about agreement with client,or it has power to do any measure without responsibily before its clients ?
There are two important objectives:
1. To fullfil the contractual obligations to the customers.
2. Resolution once and forever the headache with Ukraine that constantly demands special prices, doesn't pay in time and so on.
Many years the objective #1 was paramount. So in fact Russia was in a weak position all the way and lost billions of potential profits. But now the situation has been changed and I believe that it is in the interests of European customers that relations between Ukraine and Russia in the gas sphere becomes purely commercial.
Yes, there were some problems today for the customers. But further the probability that they could happen is far lower.
PS. We are brothers and sometimes in the direct meaning of this word.
Re: Does anybody care about Russia-Ukraine gas conflict? - Max - 01-19-2009
OK I have latest news… the numbers are not published officially yet, however members of Ukrainian delegation gave them to journalists unofficially and now it’s on TV and in the news.
The average yearly price of gas for Ukraine is… drum roll… 235$ for 1000 c.m. The transit rate is still same, 1.7$ for every 1000 c.m on 100 km.
The contract is concluded since 2009 till 2019. So Ukraine, EU and Russia now have 10 years of quite life.
Transit will be restored within the next few days. However I’m sure Europe will not forget these 12 days of Big Freeze. The changes are about to happen soon.
Re: Answer to Max - BK - 01-19-2009
Max We expect average year price of 250-260$. However I can’t support this because we have nothing from Prime-ministers yet. Julia Tymoshenko ... will open numbers to public only after signing.Yes, it certainly does!
[color=#FF0000 Wrote:Well, we now know from BOTH Putin and JT expect that it will be LESS than $250. [/color]
The transit rate is still same that’s why I openly express my doubts about how much the transit is economically expedient. Putin has acknowleged that the transit rate will likely more than double next year.
]Yes, there is Energy Charter, moral and political obligations but companies work for profit first of all. I don’t think someone will deny economic rules soon. Russia has refused to accept the Charter. Ukraine will accept it. Countries deny the rules of laizze faire capitalism all the time to promote social policies and benefits. Tariffs, graduated taxes and and minimum wage laws, for example. Most Western countries today have laws which forbid simply shutting off the utilities (gas/electric) or evicting the elderly, handicapped, people with children and poor people in general just because they can't pay thier rent or utility bills. ... We can debate the wisdom of such policies but the fact is that they are universal
Today alienation of GTS is prohibited for all, including EU. And its efficiency actually doesn’t depend on confidence. The GTS system is really inefficient in economic terms --it costs much more to operate than it should and it badly needs a remont/upgrading... Although GTS cannot be alienated, there is room in the law to allow EU companies to help with the upgrading in exchange for limited rights other than ownership; for example cheap rent of expanded gas storage capacity (Right now a lot of countries in the EU are wishing that they had had storage facilities and reserves. The details aren't important, we appear to agree on the principal.)[/color]
I believe my way of conversation shows vividly how much we care about their opinion.
Reply to SiD! - BK - 01-19-2009
SiD Wrote:Are you speaking about same Iran US are building missile defense against and that was/is frequently called thier next target? Becouse i do not understand something, insted of buyng from Russia that always speaks about cooperation in all spheres you suggest it is "better" to buy from Iran that is called "threat"? Parhaps i messed up something?
No SiD, you understood. Its just a personal prediction with some basis in reality. Iran has been making overtures to the U.S. to get the embargo lifted. Irans so-called Nuclear weapons program is a bargaining chip with the West. (Iran KNOWS that it will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons.) There will shortly be a new U.S. President and a Secretary of State who are committed to a different foreign policy strategy. You can anticipate at least a partial lifting of the Embargo on Iranian gas in exchange for it giving up its nuclear program as part of this new policy. Depending upon Russias response you can also expect Germany to reduce/suspend/slow down its committment to the new pipeline --it might be too busy fulfilling contracts for an expanded Nabucco line --or the EU may develop a coordinated energy policy. The missle defense shield is also a bargaining chip. It will never be installed or if it is installed, it will be manned by both NATO AND Russian personnel. In exchange, Russia will have to give up claims to a sphere of influence over Ukraine... which means either leaving or sharing its naval base in the Crimea. In passing, there is a very interesting little conspiracy theory that the U.S. engineered the economic crisis to punish Russia for Georgia as well as to punish Europe for not responding more forcefully. According to the theory, the U.S. started it by allowing a key institution to go bankrupt, but, unfortuantely, once it started they could not control it. Of course, its only idle speculation... but you might find the dates and sequence of events interesting if you like conspiracy theories.
Re: It was Never About the Money! - Moskal1 - 01-19-2009
BK Wrote:IF the deal is signed today then it confirms what I have been arguing : the dispute was never really about money. Based on current information:
1. For this year Ukraine will likely pay an overall average of between $201 and $220 for gas which is less that the $250 fixed price which Russia originally wanted or the $235 which Ukraine ultimately offered to pay just before Russia turned the gas off.
2. RosUrkEnergo, the corrupt intermediary will not be used which, aside from reducing a major source of corruption, means that ordinary Ukrainians will actually pay significantly less for gas this year. (Last year, RosUrkEnergo added commissions and other fees which increased the actual price of gas to about $320: no one knows for sure where this money (over a billion dollars) went, not even Gazprom which owns 50% of RosUrkEnergo.)
3. Russia currently pays about $3 billion a year for transit. Russia will begin paying transit fees at the market rate in 2010 (a year earlier) or, in simple terms, $6 Billion a year (Russia has been charging less than half the market rate for transit, a fact overlooked by many on this forum)
4. In 2010 Ukraine will begin paying "European" rates based on the prices that Russia actually charges its EU customers --i.e., less than the market value since Russia uses "preferred customer pricing."
5. Outstanding debts: There is no word on whether Russia has waived the fines for late payments that it is demanding or if Ukraine will pay for the transit gas it used during the first week of January. It is a safe (but not certain) assumption that these were factored into the present agreement and are no longer an issue.
In sum, it is clear from the results of the negotiations that money was never the real issue, at least for Russia. So what was so important that both Russia and Ukraine not only severly damaged their reputations with Europe but are facing huge lawsuits? We may never really know.
We do know one thing: Russia and Ukraine have awakened a sleeping Europe. It is now very likely that they will pressure the U.S. to lift its embargo on Iran's gas. Iran has enough gas to flood the market. If so, then the price of gas will remain low and in three to five years time, Russia and Ukraine will have lost most of their captive European market.
Perhaps Europe eventually will be grateful for this gas war. The U.S. is certainly happy: they have been warning Europe that this might happen for years. So the only real losers are Russia and Ukraine. Who lost more? Only time will tell.
BK
1. Bull. The Ukraine has been reported today to have agreed for nearly double price - $360
2. Bull again. RUE will not be used - that's correct, but it was both in interest of Russia (Putin) and Timoshenko and against USchenko - US puppet.
3. Russia will pay full transit price in exchange for full market price for gas. This concerns point 4.
5. Debts will be repaid - no doubt about it and no worries, mate
In sum, initially the money was the issue. Gazprom already pressurized the Ukrain in summer-autumn '08 when the were owing a substantial amount and did not want to pay. This was settled by they immediately began piling up new debts.
Europe pressing Uncle Sam? - that's the funniest thing I ve hear for the last 5 days! The US embargo on Iranian gas will remain if the US doesn't want to add power to Iran (they already have to certain extent by that stupid Iraqi war). And don't forget Iran is already part of the gas troika, whose another part is Russia. The three countires have agreed to coordinate prices. "The era of cheap energy is over" © A. Miller (Gazprom CEO). You see oil prices have fallen from 140 to 50 within weeks, and now that sticking within 30 to 40 corridor for months already. Don't be so optimistic - it is not the end of the crisis yet. Uncle Sam has managed so far to get away, but the dollar bubble cannot be blown up limitlessly. Sooner or later it will explode and then it will be the end of globalizm, the US domination and the Golden billion. The country with population at about 2% consuming about 40% of the GDP will cease to exist, just like many European countries.
Who lost the war? Definitely, the Ukraine. But the term "looser" is hardly applicable as the country ever since 1991 has never been the subject, but an object of the global politics. In other words, the Ukraine is much more used then uses. And it is approaching to its logical end.
Re: Ukraine blocks gas after Russia turns taps on - muschamp - 01-19-2009
Ukrainian
May be I don't understand your situation, or may be I do. I am not young, I have seen revolutions before. When I get a Gas bill, no one ask me if I am communist capitalist socialist of Fascist, they only want to know about my ability to pay for gas, as a westerner I always look for profit. Anyone from the west is looking for profit, we cant help it.
The idea that you have to look to the west does not make sense to me, how does that pay bills in Ukraine in the short or long term. The revolution that you say that you are having in Ukraine is meaning less if you don't have money. You have mentioned a number of Russian dissidence's, as i recall the west gave them some money for complaining, I have no politics except finding better ways to make myself rich. Politics and politicians come and go. It is a good thing to stand up to the Russians to get a better deal for Ukraine's pipelines, it's good business. Russians are like any one else who are trying to make money, they need pipelines to carry their gas, Ukraine has them, and they want to control them if they can, why not. You should stop worrying about the west and start working out how to get some of the money that is being earned in the industry.
You say that Ukraine is not just a machine for Russian gas, and that there are people there. It is to late to say that, you have something of strategic importance to the Russian's the West and the US, that means bombs, and guns on both sides of your border weather you want them there or not. With such a large Russian population it is not practical to talk about EU membership, both party's have the wrong motive for wanting you with them. You seem to think having to renegotiate a transit fee every year is a bad thing, this is quite normal in the west, and is in your interest to do it year by year. When the recession ends Gas prices will triple, so should your transit fee, it is business. Don't let any one turn it into politics, they just want a discount, I wouldn't give them any, you are not ready for the western rules yet. No one cares how cold it is in Ukraine, or how bad it is for your factory's, you have to care yourself. You do that by standing your ground when faced with people who say that they want to be your friend without paying a transit fee for your facilities, they would have to pay me. I don,t want what they are selling.
I would not call my self tough, but if you are a typical Ukrainian, you would not survive in the west, all signs of weakness is something that we would take advantage of not sympathize with. The rights that you have is the same for every one else Russians as well, they are limited to what you can define with your own mussel's. The Russians wouldn't dare cut of my Gas again, they know who I am. I pay my bills with money, and I don't take rubbish.
You seem to have a lot of time to hate Russians. I hate no one, I always try to exploit them.
I have met Russians and Poles before, I am not sure about Ukrainian's I didn't ask them where they are from.
I don't know any of Yushenko's policy's or the opposition party's way of thinking so I cannot vote. If he is involved with the US, under Bush, you have nothing to gain in the short or long term. I live here.
Reply to Moskal1 - BK - 01-19-2009
Moskal1 Wrote:BK Wrote:IF the deal is signed today then it confirms what I have been arguing : the dispute was never really about money.....[see above for the posting that Moskal1 is responding to]
1. Bull. The Ukraine has been reported today to have agreed for nearly double price - $360
Bull? Perhaps you have not read your own newspapers reporting of statements from deputy chairman of the board of Gazprom, OJSC Aleksandr Medvedev : “An average annual price for gas for Ukraine in 2009 may amount to less than 250 dollars per thousand cubic metres."
2. Bull again. RUE will not be used - that's correct, but it was both in interest of Russia (Putin) and Timoshenko and against USchenko - US puppet.
Bull? RUE made hundreds of millions of dollars for Gazprom and the major conduit for the export of destabilizing corruption in Ukrainian politics. According to Transparency International , Russia is not only more corrupt internally than Ukraine, Russia is also a world leader in exporting corruption to other countries. It will be interesting to see Putin/Russian reaction when all of RUE's illegally obtained distribution contracts within Ukraine itself are cancelled in the coming weeks.
3. Russia will pay full transit price in exchange for full market price for gas.
Russia previously stated that its transit contract was separate and valid until 2011; It has dropped this claim and renegotiateed both contracts. Both Ukraine and Russia had previously committed to market prices for both gas and transit by 2011; the current agreement simply speeded up the timetable. And Ukraine now has a solid ten year contract.
5. Debts will be repaid - no doubt about it and no worries, mate
Surprisingly, neither Russia nor Ukraine has mentioned the status of prior claims for compensation made by Russia for fines, stolen gas and indemnification. My guess is that they are incorporated in the present contract, meaning, that have been waived/cancelled out.
In sum, initially the money was the issue.
Really? Personally I think that Putin is to smart to throw away over a billion dollars in sales revenue and much of Russias reputation simply in order to negotiate a contract which allows Ukraine to pay less than the fixed $250 it originally offered. If you believe that, then there is a bridge in Brooklyn you might want to buy.
Europe pressing Uncle Sam? - that's the funniest thing I ve hear for the last 5 days!
Contrary to the opinions expressed by many here, the U.S. obviously does not and cannot dictate policy to Europe. If it could, then both Georgia and Ukraine would already be under the NATO unbrella.
... Don't be so optimistic - it is not the end of the crisis yet. Uncle Sam has managed so far to get away, but the dollar bubble cannot be blown up limitlessly. Sooner or later it will explode and then it will be the end of globalizm, the US domination and the Golden billion. The country with population at about 2% consuming about 40% of the GDP will cease to exist, just like many European countries.
I am continually amazed by the Russian demonization of the United States for a crisis that the U.S. had no part in; perhaps it is an attempt to avoid facing your own internal problems or to artificially inflate your own stature but, as I recently read on one these forums, the sad truth is that Eagles don't chase flies. Aside from oil which it did not create, Russias main claim to fame is that it led one of the most ruthless evil empires in the history of the human race. This perception may not be completely fair to Russia, but it is widely held and recent actions have done little to change it.
Who lost the war? Definitely, the Ukraine. But the term "looser" is hardly applicable as the country ever since 1991 has never been the subject, but an object of the global politics. In other words, the Ukraine is much more used then uses. And it is approaching to its logical end.
It saddens me to say it M. Moskal1, but these sick sentiments and warped perception of Ukraine are precisely why Ukraine would rather be with Europe and NATO than with Russia. Friendship, after all, is only possible where there is mutual respect. If you are any indication then Russia does not appear to respect anyone, least of all, itself.
Re: Reply to Moskal1 - correction - BK - 01-19-2009
BK Wrote:Moskal1 Wrote:BK Wrote:IF the deal is signed today then it confirms what I have been arguing : the dispute was never really about money.....[see above two posts if you are interested]
5. Debts will be repaid - no doubt about it and no worries, mate
Surprisingly, neither Russia nor Ukraine has mentioned the status of prior claims for compensation made by Russia for fines, stolen gas and indemnification. My guess is that they are incorporated in the present contract, meaning, that have been waived/cancelled out.
Update: Moskal1, I was apparently correct; Russia had dropped its claims for the almost one BILLION dollars that it previously said was owed by Ukraine for late payments and stolen gas. This represents a further reduction in the price that Ukraine is going to pay this year. And it further supports my argument that the issue was never really the money. Sorry Moskal1, but no matter how you twist and turn them, the facts speak for themselves. Unless something really startling happens over the next few days, its time to move on to another topic -perhaps a dialogue between Ukrainians and Europeans about integration with the EU? (This site IS, after all, sponsored by the auspices of the EU.) Perhaps someday Russia will follow Ukraine into the EU just as it followed in Ukraines path to the WTO.
Re: Reply to Moskal1 - Guest - 01-20-2009
It saddens me to say it M. Moskal1, but these sick sentiments and warped perception of Ukraine are precisely why Ukraine would rather be with Europe and NATO than with Russia. Friendship, after all, is only possible where there is mutual respect. If you are any indication then Russia does not appear to respect anyone, least of all, itself.[/quote]
Bravo, bravo you hit it right on the button
Re: Answer to Max - Max - 01-20-2009
BK Wrote:Well, we now know from BOTH Putin and JT expect that it will be LESS than $250.
True, now we know the approximate level.
Quote:Russia has refused to accept the Charter. Ukraine will accept it. Countries deny the rules of laizze faire capitalism all the time to promote social policies and benefits. Tariffs, graduated taxes and and minimum wage laws, for example. Most Western countries today have laws which forbid simply shutting off the utilities (gas/electric) or evicting the elderly, handicapped, people with children and poor people in general just because they can't pay thier rent or utility bills. ... We can debate the wisdom of such policies but the fact is that they are universal
That’s why we were supplying gas after 1 of January when it was halted for Ukraine. We had not legal reasons or contracts to provide service of transit but we did it at own expense. And Ukraine only took away a bit of mentioned “technical gas” which makes 15% of flow. In fact to minimize loss we added 76 millions c.m. of own gas for technical needs - only to guarantee transit to EU. This is supported by EU observers from monitoring group.
Quote:The GTS system is really inefficient in economic terms --it costs much more to operate than it should and it badly needs a remont/upgrading... Although GTS cannot be alienated, there is room in the law to allow EU companies to help with the upgrading in exchange for limited rights other than ownership; for example cheap rent of expanded gas storage capacity (Right now a lot of countries in the EU are wishing that they had had storage facilities and reserves. The details aren't important, we appear to agree on the principal.
The technical state of GTS is OK but I think all suggestions of EU are welcome. Let it be discussed by politicians. Now, our GTS is really inefficient in economic terms but it comes from entire business scheme. In fact it incomes are only compensator for gas price so I can’t see anywhere pure profit. If we were pumping other stream which belongs to different suppliers-consumers this might be profitable I think.
As about rent of under level storages I think it’s healthy idea. Their overall volume is more them 22 billions of c.m. If some European energy companies will appear in schemes as desired partners, they will get rights to rent the storage, of course.
And finally… after making many claims about stealing, losses, indebtedness, fines, etc Russia even gave not appeal to Stockholm arbitration to prove it as it was promised. It didn’t make any legal steps to support all these claims at all. At the moment all reciprocal claims are canceled.
Re: Putin loses hostages, refunds ransom money - Guest - 01-20-2009
The Russian offer of $250 was a fixed price. The current agreement calls for the price to be adjusted in line with the price of oil. International Experts estimate that the average cost of gas to Ukraine for 2009 will be between $201 and $220 which is less than the $235 that Ukraine offered to pay a few days before Russia shut off the gas. And the elimination of RusUkrEnergo will further lower the price. If you are as familiar with the gas-oil trade as you pretend to be, you already know this --so why the dissimulation of information?[/quote]
I really love you unbiased posts. Very infomative and accurate ( I actually checked) Greate job!!!
Re: Ukraine blocks gas after Russia turns taps on - sektor_Gaza - 01-20-2009
muschamp Wrote:Ukrainian
May be I don't understand your situation, or may be I do. I am not young, I have seen revolutions before. When I get a Gas bill, no one ask me if I am communist capitalist socialist of Fascist, they only want to know about my ability to pay for gas, as a westerner I always look for profit. Anyone from the west is looking for profit, we cant help it.
The idea that you have to look to the west does not make sense to me, how does that pay bills in Ukraine in the short or long term. The revolution that you say that you are having in Ukraine is meaning less if you don't have money. You have mentioned a number of Russian dissidence's, as i recall the west gave them some money for complaining, I have no politics except finding better ways to make myself rich. Politics and politicians come and go. It is a good thing to stand up to the Russians to get a better deal for Ukraine's pipelines, it's good business. Russians are like any one else who are trying to make money, they need pipelines to carry their gas, Ukraine has them, and they want to control them if they can, why not. You should stop worrying about the west and start working out how to get some of the money that is being earned in the industry.
You say that Ukraine is not just a machine for Russian gas, and that there are people there. It is to late to say that, you have something of strategic importance to the Russian's the West and the US, that means bombs, and guns on both sides of your border weather you want them there or not. With such a large Russian population it is not practical to talk about EU membership, both party's have the wrong motive for wanting you with them. You seem to think having to renegotiate a transit fee every year is a bad thing, this is quite normal in the west, and is in your interest to do it year by year. When the recession ends Gas prices will triple, so should your transit fee, it is business. Don't let any one turn it into politics, they just want a discount, I wouldn't give them any, you are not ready for the western rules yet. No one cares how cold it is in Ukraine, or how bad it is for your factory's, you have to care yourself. You do that by standing your ground when faced with people who say that they want to be your friend without paying a transit fee for your facilities, they would have to pay me. I don,t want what they are selling.
I would not call my self tough, but if you are a typical Ukrainian, you would not survive in the west, all signs of weakness is something that we would take advantage of not sympathize with. The rights that you have is the same for every one else Russians as well, they are limited to what you can define with your own mussel's. The Russians wouldn't dare cut of my Gas again, they know who I am. I pay my bills with money, and I don't take rubbish.
You seem to have a lot of time to hate Russians. I hate no one, I always try to exploit them.
I have met Russians and Poles before, I am not sure about Ukrainian's I didn't ask them where they are from.
I don't know any of Yushenko's policy's or the opposition party's way of thinking so I cannot vote. If he is involved with the US, under Bush, you have nothing to gain in the short or long term. I live here.
Dear Friend,
I did enjoyed reading your post. It is the best. I could really see your wisdom. Many thanks!
Re: Ukraina is a terrorist state? - sektor_Gaza - 01-20-2009
I do believe that of course Ukraine is not a terrorist state. There has been just a lack of wisdom recently. I do believe that Ukrainian nation have the capacity to change the current situation of collapse in political field of their country!
Keep working on it, guys!