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Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Printable Version

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Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Ann from Russia - 08-16-2008

yeah,yeah, you are like the blind kittens. Well, be that you want to be.


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Mariam - 08-16-2008

Ann from Russia Wrote:yeah,yeah, you are like the blind kittens. Well, be that you want to be.

Hei u silly russian girl, Don't you have any strong argument? :haha Than SHUT UP!


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Ann from Russia - 08-16-2008

Диана Алексенко
15 авг 2008 в 1:56

Дайте Грузии шанс!

Послушайте, ну не такая она и плохая эта Грузия.
Не самая ведь ужасная страна на свете.
Ну да, есть отвратный Саакашвили, но в целом грузины достаточно неплохо смотрятся на фоне остального Кавказа и Закавказья. Христиане опять же.

У Грузии большие проблемы. Очень большие. Треть территории страны уже много лет не подчиняются центральной власти.
Понравилось бы нам, если бы Урал и Западная Сибирь, формально входя в состав РФ, фактически жили бы сами по себе? То-то же.
И грузинам тоже горько и обидно.
А Россия в этом смысле ведёт себя некрасиво и непоследовательно. Она , с одной стороны, признаёт территориальную целостность Грузии (всегда и везде, в любых заявлениях официальных лиц), с другой - поддерживает и финансирует сомнительные режимы ЮО и Абхазии. Дала всем наши паспорта.


Вот сейчас мы ввели войска куда?
В Грузию!
А боевые действия ведём где?
На территории Грузии!
Да, там гибнут наши граждане. Но хренли наши граждане в таком количестве делают на территории Грузии?!

Все мы это понимаем, но говорим много разных слов, чтобы обмануть самих себя.
Соответственно, и грузины это понимают. Вся эта ситуация уже много лет является главным и единственным вопросом внутриполитической повестки дня Грузии.
На любых выборах избиратели задают единственный вопрос кандидатам: А как вы собираетесь целостность страны восстанавливать?
Кандидаты уже много лет отвечают: Мы сплотим всю грузинскую нацию! Мы возродим Грузию! Мы восстановим наши границы!
Логическим этапом политпроцесса стал приход к власти европеизированного грузинского Гитлера - Саакашвили.

Он действительно объединил нацию. И даже вернул часть страны - Аджарию, изгнав оттуда коррумпированное правительство Абашидзе (которое, к слову сказать, приютил и наделил новыми бизнесами Лужков).
Мог ли Грузиногитлер он на этом остановиться? Ну конечно нет!
Он может сколько угодно поднимать экономику, разгонять ГАИ и вытеснять из страны воров в законе (опять же, вытесняют их в Россию).
Но ждут от него одного: возврата земель.
Если он не будет предпринимать попыток в этом направлении - он не нужен грузинам и не интересен грузинским политикам.
Поэтому он сделал попытку. И сделает снова. И снова, и снова.

И если он уйдёт в отставку, или отравится, или его грохнут - всё равно любой его преемник будет занят только тем, чтобы вернуть территории.
Грузия будет жить ещё много лет на полувоеннном положении, беднеть, наращивать военый бюджет, пытаться наускать на нас омериканчегов и европейцев.
То есть заниматься всей этой чушью, вместо того, чтобы жить-и добра наживать.
Повторюсь, другого сценария нет и не может быть. Никогда не сможет смириться грузинский народ с тем, что часть его страны оккупирована.

Поэтому давайте дадим Грузии шанс.
Россия должна дать Грузии шанс.
Шанс вернуться к нормальной жизни и выйти из этого бесконечного полувоенного кошмара. Бессмысленного накручивания самих себя и всех вокруг.

Россия должна прекратить все боевые действия на территории Грузии!
Ни один русский солдат не должен находиться на грузинской земле!
Для того, чтобы сделать это, властная верхушка РФ должна наконец-то решиться на ответственное и давно назревшее решение.
Россия должна незамедлительно признать независимость Южной Осетии и Абхазии.
Мы должны признать их независимость во имя Грузии.

Всему миру, США, Европе, России и Грузии давно пора понять, что отделение этих стран - не козни РФ, а завершение (продолжение) процесса распада СССР.
Да, грузинам будет очень больно.
Но, как поётся в песне: это больно, зато потом приятно.
Через некоторое время они смирятся с неизбежностью. Поймут, что прошлого не воротишь и заживут своей нормальной жизнью. Начнут выращивать виноград, петь свои песни, пасти в горах осликов, ишачков и кого они там ещё пасут. Займутся развитием туризма. Восстановят дельфинарий в Батуми. Укрепят нефтепровод. Покончат с энегрозависимостью от РФ. Повысят уровень жизни и, возможно, гр


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Ann from Russia - 08-16-2008

Of course, Mariam wants me to shut up. Yeah, she really doesn't want the truth. Mariam, Russian do not want to see you lie and Saakashvilli'a lie!


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Tamar - 08-16-2008

What the whole world has seen these days are: the russian soldiers who have no brains, who even don't know why they are doing all these and where they are heading to, but who are able to bomb, kill and shoot the innocent civilians and journalists, when the Georgian forces have already withdrawn, don't tell me that you did not see how they shot the journalist which was working live or how they attacked the truck of the Turkish journalists, how the Dutch cameraman and journalist were killed!!!!!!! These facts show who is who! You don't like our President because he is not your obedient and humble servant, well , get used to it, guys! Because time when Georgian Goverment was your servant has finished!!!


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - IamGEORGIA - 08-16-2008

Ann from Russia Wrote:Диана Алексенко
15 авг 2008 в 1:56

Дайте Грузии шанс!

Послушайте, ну не такая она и плохая эта Грузия.
Не самая ведь ужасная страна на свете.
Ну да, есть отвратный Саакашвили, но в целом грузины достаточно неплохо смотрятся на фоне остального Кавказа и Закавказья. Христиане опять же.

У Грузии большие проблемы. Очень большие. Треть территории страны уже много лет не подчиняются центральной власти.
Понравилось бы нам, если бы Урал и Западная Сибирь, формально входя в состав РФ, фактически жили бы сами по себе? То-то же.
И грузинам тоже горько и обидно.
А Россия в этом смысле ведёт себя некрасиво и непоследовательно. Она , с одной стороны, признаёт территориальную целостность Грузии (всегда и везде, в любых заявлениях официальных лиц), с другой - поддерживает и финансирует сомнительные режимы ЮО и Абхазии. Дала всем наши паспорта.


Вот сейчас мы ввели войска куда?
В Грузию!
А боевые действия ведём где?
На территории Грузии!
Да, там гибнут наши граждане. Но хренли наши граждане в таком количестве делают на территории Грузии?!

Все мы это понимаем, но говорим много разных слов, чтобы обмануть самих себя.
Соответственно, и грузины это понимают. Вся эта ситуация уже много лет является главным и единственным вопросом внутриполитической повестки дня Грузии.
На любых выборах избиратели задают единственный вопрос кандидатам: А как вы собираетесь целостность страны восстанавливать?
Кандидаты уже много лет отвечают: Мы сплотим всю грузинскую нацию! Мы возродим Грузию! Мы восстановим наши границы!
Логическим этапом политпроцесса стал приход к власти европеизированного грузинского Гитлера - Саакашвили.

Он действительно объединил нацию. И даже вернул часть страны - Аджарию, изгнав оттуда коррумпированное правительство Абашидзе (которое, к слову сказать, приютил и наделил новыми бизнесами Лужков).
Мог ли Грузиногитлер он на этом остановиться? Ну конечно нет!
Он может сколько угодно поднимать экономику, разгонять ГАИ и вытеснять из страны воров в законе (опять же, вытесняют их в Россию).
Но ждут от него одного: возврата земель.
Если он не будет предпринимать попыток в этом направлении - он не нужен грузинам и не интересен грузинским политикам.
Поэтому он сделал попытку. И сделает снова. И снова, и снова.

И если он уйдёт в отставку, или отравится, или его грохнут - всё равно любой его преемник будет занят только тем, чтобы вернуть территории.
Грузия будет жить ещё много лет на полувоеннном положении, беднеть, наращивать военый бюджет, пытаться наускать на нас омериканчегов и европейцев.
То есть заниматься всей этой чушью, вместо того, чтобы жить-и добра наживать.
Повторюсь, другого сценария нет и не может быть. Никогда не сможет смириться грузинский народ с тем, что часть его страны оккупирована.

Поэтому давайте дадим Грузии шанс.
Россия должна дать Грузии шанс.
Шанс вернуться к нормальной жизни и выйти из этого бесконечного полувоенного кошмара. Бессмысленного накручивания самих себя и всех вокруг.

Россия должна прекратить все боевые действия на территории Грузии!
Ни один русский солдат не должен находиться на грузинской земле!
Для того, чтобы сделать это, властная верхушка РФ должна наконец-то решиться на ответственное и давно назревшее решение.
Россия должна незамедлительно признать независимость Южной Осетии и Абхазии.
Мы должны признать их независимость во имя Грузии.

Всему миру, США, Европе, России и Грузии давно пора понять, что отделение этих стран - не козни РФ, а завершение (продолжение) процесса распада СССР.
Да, грузинам будет очень больно.
Но, как поётся в песне: это больно, зато потом приятно.
Через некоторое время они смирятся с неизбежностью. Поймут, что прошлого не воротишь и заживут своей нормальной жизнью. Начнут выращивать виноград, петь свои песни, пасти в горах осликов, ишачков и кого они там ещё пасут. Займутся развитием туризма. Восстановят дельфинарий в Батуми. Укрепят нефтепровод. Покончат с энегрозависимостью от РФ. Повысят уровень жизни и, возможно, гр


part of this is true..and i agree..

But one thing should be said:
Russia do not really care about Ossetia or Abkhazia..noway..
if they wanted to make this two regions of georgia independetn, ehay would have done it earlier..
They just want to have two bombs against georgia..whenevr they want thay can use it..
Thats why they do not want to lose this two way of infulencing on georgia..


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - independent - 08-16-2008

Mariam Wrote:to "Indefendent" - You said you are finish guy. Well, well, Doesno't look like. Just one quesiton to you:

Didi you see couple of minutes ago BBC news? Did you see what journalist say? Did you see wounded babies, ladies, men, which were took today to the hospital? So what is your comments? DId you trus t this information? Now you see that ceasefire agreement does not work?

Indeed not from the beginning - but Yes I saw it. I didn't insist thet there is nothing going on - and Yes
I believe that there are victims. I also know that it is common that violence belongs to every military conflict.
It is called War - remember ?
But You should also know that expect soldiers there are always rude people who just utilize the situation.

I also saw STT (Finnish News agency) videos from S-Ossaatia (Tskhinvali) - and believe me: it was prety
bad. Also Our Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb was wisiting those areas after meeting with Saakashvili
few days ago.So we got our own man there before correspondents - for me his opinion is pretty creditable.

But If You really are from Georgia - I'm very interested to hear Your opinion of one thing:
Hypotically:
If for You comes absolutely clear that Georgia really did attack Tskhinvali first - and that more than
1000 civilians died there under Your army fire - and that this fire was targetted directly to civilian objects.
Does it change Your opinion about Your government ? Or do You also after that think Russians are
doing wrong ?

I really appreciate if You answer honestly ! Smile


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Mariam - 08-16-2008

Ann from Russia Wrote:Of course, Mariam wants me to shut up. Yeah, she really doesn't want the truth. Mariam, Russian do not want to see you lie and Saakashvilli'a lie!


you silly, now you think that u have posted some very interesting article? written by world know diana :haha This offensive words I found there again highlites how is your nation reacts on our peronality. How humanitarians you are. Though high in mountains we have cows, gooses, sheeps and your lovely oslikov, civilization in my country have been entered centuries ago. But unfortunatly your country never have in a perspective to enter in the era of civilization, NEVER. YOu are the country of killers, murderers, drunkers, hookers, country where chiled is killing his mother father and other close relatives, country where brother can fuck his sister. THIS IS RUSSIA - VELIKAIA DERJAVA. :mrgreen:


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Hakan G - 08-16-2008

Ann from Russia Wrote:Диана Алексенко
15 авг 2008 в 1:56

Дайте Грузии шанс!

Послушайте, ну не такая она и плохая эта Грузия.
Не самая ведь ужасная стран....

Could you post next time in English please, in order for everybody to understand what your opinion is all about.
Thank you.


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Lor - 08-16-2008

Did Russia Plan Its War in Georgia


Before the guns of August, there were the maneuvers of July.


Less than one month before Russia's armed forces entered Georgia on August 8, they held massive military training exercises in the North Caucasus involving 8,000 servicemen and 700 pieces of military hardware.


At center stage in those maneuvers -- which took place in the second half of July, not far from Georgia's border -- was Russia's 58th Army, the very unit that would later play a key role in the incursion.


Those exercises are just one link in a chain of incidents suggesting that Russia's military action in Georgia was planned months in advance, awaiting only an appropriate pretext to act.


Military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer says the aim, from the start, was to overthrow Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his pro-Western government.


"This was prepared long ago," Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based military analyst tells RFE/RL's North Caucasus Service, adding that according to his information, a decision to go to war was made back in April.


"A decision was made for the war to start in August. The war would have happened regardless of what the Georgians did. Whether they responded to the provocations or not, there would have been an invasion of Georgia," Felgenhauer says. "The goal was to destroy Georgia's central government, defeat the Georgian army, and prevent Georgia from joining NATO."


Planning Began In April


April -- the month in which Felgenhauer claims Russia made its decision to invade -- was also the month when the NATO military alliance declined to offer outright a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia and Ukraine at its annual summit in Bucharest.


In an August 14 article published in the "Novaya gazeta" weekly, Felgenhauer, who is credited with maintaining close sources in the Russian military, claims Moscow's plan began taking shape shortly after Georgia and Ukraine were denied a MAP.


The Kremlin, which has made no secret of its antipathy for Georgia's NATO aspirations, may have been emboldened by Georgia's failure to achieve a critical step forward in the membership process. Alternately, it may have been angered by NATO's conciliatory pledge to Tbilisi and Kyiv that they would receive a MAP in future -- a move seen by many as a strong gesture of support from the West.


Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, says NATO's decision may have encouraged Russia to play rough with Georgia.


"I think the Russians took the wrong lessons from Bucharest," Pifer says. "There was a lot of Russian pressure and rhetoric against both Georgia and [Ukraine] getting Membership Action Plans before Bucharest. I've heard that Russians regard Bucharest as a success. And what you saw after Bucharest was an increase in pressure."


'Long Prepared, Successfully Executed'


Felgenhauer is not the only expert in Russia to posit the Kremlin's August "surprise" was anything but.


Writing in the online newspaper "Yezhednevny zhurnal," Andrei Illarionov likewise argues that the invasion of Georgia "had been long prepared and successfully executed." Illarionov is a onetime adviser to former Russian president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin who has since emerged as a fierce Kremlin critic.


Such interpretations contradict the official narrative of the war promoted relentlessly by the Kremlin in the domestic and international media -- that Russian forces acted only in order to defend Russian citizens and peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia from Georgian soldiers intent on "ethnic cleansing" and "genocide" in the breakaway region.


For now, there is no smoking gun to prove Russia methodically plotted its incursion into Georgia. But the first sign that Russia might seek a military advance on Georgia came more than a year ago -- in July 2007, when Moscow withdrew from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, an amended Cold War-era document setting limitations on troops and military hardware between the Atlantic and the Ural Mountains.


Speaking to RFE/RL's Russian Service at the time of the withdrawal, Steven Blank, a professor of strategic studies at the U.S. Army War College, warned the move could allow Russia to threaten Georgia by freely moving substantial deployments of troops and equipment into the North Caucasus.


"What Russia really wants is essentially to be able to do as it pleases in world affairs and to answer to nobody," Blank said. "It wants a totally free hand, particularly in and around the CIS. It also needs to conjure up the idea of an enemy to justify its regime. The fact of the matter is that the most immediate threat here is to Georgia, because the Russian government could pack forces into the North Caucasus to threaten Georgia."


Strengthened Ties


Russia's provocations became more pronounced after the NATO summit, with Putin -- in the last month of his presidency -- signing on April 16 a decree authorizing the Russian government to strengthen diplomatic and aid links with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia's pro-Moscow separatist provinces.


Later that month, Russia deployed 1,500 additional troops, some heavily armed, to its "peacekeeping" contingent in Abkhazia without Georgia's consent. The move was an express violation of a 1994 cease-fire agreement ending a brief but grievous civil war between Abkhaz and Georgian fighters.


In the weeks that followed, Georgia accused Russia of shooting down unmanned drone aircraft conducting reconnaissance flights over Abkhazia. Russian military aircraft were also detected violating Georgian airspace near the separatist territory.


In June, Russia stoked tensions yet again by deploying unarmed troops to Abkhazia to rebuild a rail link between the cities of Sukhumi and Ochamchira. Moscow argued the move was a humanitarian gesture meant to improve the territory's decrepit transportation infrastructure.


But Matthew Bryza, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, now argues the move was used to move military supplies into Georgia.


"We heard statements that the Russian railroad troops that had entered Abkhazia a couple of months ago were there on a humanitarian mission. And now we know the truth about why those forces were there. It was to rebuild the railroad to allow ammunition and other military supplies to aid a Russian invasion," Bryza told reporters in Tbilisi on August 11.


Predicting An Invasion


And then came Russia's Kavkaz-2008 military exercises in the North Caucasus in late July. Speaking at the time, Felgenhauer suggested the maneuvers -- which coincided with U.S.-led training of forces in Georgia -- might forecast a Russian invasion of Georgia as soon as August.


"I am afraid that there is a very strong possibility that military activity will happen this year, probably in the next month," Felgenhauer told RFE/RL's North Caucasus Service. "We could have a full-scale military conflict."


But with all eyes on Abkhazia, the focus abruptly shifted to South Ossetia, where days of clashes across the de facto border with Georgia erupted in early August. Moscow accused Tbilisi of using excessive force; Georgia, meanwhile, accused Russian-backed separatists in the region of firing into Georgian-controlled villages. Each side accused the other of initiating the violence.


Blank, who predicted trouble for Georgia over a year ago, now says Moscow was confidently ramping up the level of provocations in South Ossetia. "This is a war that Russia wanted, and clearly had planned for," he added.


"The evidence I've seen indicates that the Russian Army was sitting there waiting for this, that this was essentially a provocation launched by the South Ossetians, who ratcheted up the level of violence in order to bring the Georgians -- who are easily provokable, obviously -- to attack," Blank said. "And the Russians were waiting there, ready with an operational plan and with forces in place -- land, sea and air -- to do what they have subsequently done."


After days of clashes, Georgia moved into South Ossetia on August 7 in a large-scale operation to regain control of the Moscow-backed separatist region. The offensive sparked a furious reaction from Russia, which sent in troops, military aircraft, and tanks to repel Georgian forces. (Russia assert that it entered South Ossetia nearly a day after Georgia's advance; officials in Tbilisi counter that Russian troops were already moving into South Ossetia before Georgian forces entered the province.)


'Difficult To Imagine'


Not everyone is prepared to endorse the notion of a premeditated, orchestrated war by Russia. Aleksandr Golts, a Moscow-based defense analyst, says the timing of the conflict, which came at a time when the country's leadership was absent from the capital -- President Dmitry Medvedev was in the Volga region and Putin was attending the Olympics in Beijing -- does not suggest the event was planned in advance.


"It is difficult to imagine that Russia prepared such a provocation while neither of the country's two leaders was in Moscow," Golts said. "It is [also] difficult to imagine that Russia prepared to go to war and then, when Saakashvili fell into the trap, waited 13 or 14 hours, by my count, before deploying forces."


But regardless of whether the war was prefabricated, says Golts, the blame remains squarely with the Kremlin. "Russia's policies over the past several years caused this war. And for this they bear responsibility."


Editor's Note: RFE/RL's Georgian, Russian, North Caucasus, and Tatar-Bashkir services contributed to this report. RFE/RL correspondent Heather Maher contributed from Washington.


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - IamGEORGIA - 08-16-2008

One of the most important thing today is, who supports russia today...
lets start
First of all it is Fidel castro..Of course it can not be taken seriosuly his support..
Then it comes Hugo chaves.. :haha Politician who has no political weight at all..
Who else?
Maybe Jirinovski? Clown :haha

I do not remeber anyone else..

Who supports Georgia?
Long list: When russian jets were bombing our country five president arrived in Tbilisi: UKraine, Lithuania, POland, Estonia, France, PM of latvia, next days Condoleezza Rice, PM of Turkey, EU and UN delegations, Foreign minister of several countries, on monay Angela merkel Arrives..There is also planned for next week visit of Gordon Brown...
Huge support!
Now think, who are they blaming for this conflict...


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Ann from Russia - 08-16-2008

IamGEORGIA, можно я напишу по-русски? (так быстрее) Я очень сочувствую и понимаю Вас. Просто поймите и нас. Я хочу, чтобы Вы ответили на один вопрос: мы на этом форуме разговариваем для чего? Для того, чтобы изливать друг на друга свою злость или попытаться вместе понять подробности этой трагедии? Я, как и Вы, как и все остальные люди России, Грузии и всего мира - жертвы средств массовой информации, от этого просто никуда не денешься. Я знаю теперь Вашу точку зрения, я хочу, чтобы Вы обратили внимания на мою. Я не призываю Вас ее принять, а лишь только прислушаться. Я, скажу честно, не виню грузинский народ. Я всегда уважала и вас и армяней. Люди всегда, во все времена были игрушками в руках правителей. Сейчас в мире идет информационная война. Это-факт. Каждый день всплывают новые и новые подробности... Хочу лишь объяснить, зачем русские начали атаковать Грузинские войска в Цхинвали. Все дело в том, повторяю, что в Осетии более 80% граждан Российской Федерации. Россия по Конституции должна их защищать, где бы они не находились! Здесь у меня пауза. Тут как раз и начинается вопрос, кто же тогда первый начал. Скажу: судите сами. Но тот факт, что в Россию бежали более 30 000 осетин остается фактом.


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - IamGEORGIA - 08-16-2008

Lor Wrote:Did Russia Plan Its War in Georgia


Before the guns of August, there were the maneuvers of July.


Less than one month before Russia's armed forces entered Georgia on August 8, they held massive military training exercises in the North Caucasus involving 8,000 servicemen and 700 pieces of military hardware.


At center stage in those maneuvers -- which took place in the second half of July, not far from Georgia's border -- was Russia's 58th Army, the very unit that would later play a key role in the incursion.


Those exercises are just one link in a chain of incidents suggesting that Russia's military action in Georgia was planned months in advance, awaiting only an appropriate pretext to act.


Military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer says the aim, from the start, was to overthrow Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his pro-Western government.


"This was prepared long ago," Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based military analyst tells RFE/RL's North Caucasus Service, adding that according to his information, a decision to go to war was made back in April.


"A decision was made for the war to start in August. The war would have happened regardless of what the Georgians did. Whether they responded to the provocations or not, there would have been an invasion of Georgia," Felgenhauer says. "The goal was to destroy Georgia's central government, defeat the Georgian army, and prevent Georgia from joining NATO."


Planning Began In April


April -- the month in which Felgenhauer claims Russia made its decision to invade -- was also the month when the NATO military alliance declined to offer outright a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia and Ukraine at its annual summit in Bucharest.


In an August 14 article published in the "Novaya gazeta" weekly, Felgenhauer, who is credited with maintaining close sources in the Russian military, claims Moscow's plan began taking shape shortly after Georgia and Ukraine were denied a MAP.


The Kremlin, which has made no secret of its antipathy for Georgia's NATO aspirations, may have been emboldened by Georgia's failure to achieve a critical step forward in the membership process. Alternately, it may have been angered by NATO's conciliatory pledge to Tbilisi and Kyiv that they would receive a MAP in future -- a move seen by many as a strong gesture of support from the West.


Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, says NATO's decision may have encouraged Russia to play rough with Georgia.


"I think the Russians took the wrong lessons from Bucharest," Pifer says. "There was a lot of Russian pressure and rhetoric against both Georgia and [Ukraine] getting Membership Action Plans before Bucharest. I've heard that Russians regard Bucharest as a success. And what you saw after Bucharest was an increase in pressure."


'Long Prepared, Successfully Executed'


Felgenhauer is not the only expert in Russia to posit the Kremlin's August "surprise" was anything but.


Writing in the online newspaper "Yezhednevny zhurnal," Andrei Illarionov likewise argues that the invasion of Georgia "had been long prepared and successfully executed." Illarionov is a onetime adviser to former Russian president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin who has since emerged as a fierce Kremlin critic.


Such interpretations contradict the official narrative of the war promoted relentlessly by the Kremlin in the domestic and international media -- that Russian forces acted only in order to defend Russian citizens and peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia from Georgian soldiers intent on "ethnic cleansing" and "genocide" in the breakaway region.


For now, there is no smoking gun to prove Russia methodically plotted its incursion into Georgia. But the first sign that Russia might seek a military advance on Georgia came more than a year ago -- in July 2007, when Moscow withdrew from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, an amended Cold War-era document setting limitations on troops and military hardware between the Atlantic and the Ural Mountains.


Speaking to RFE/RL's Russian Service at the time of the withdrawal, Steven Blank, a professor of strategic studies at the U.S. Army War College, warned the move could allow Russia to threaten Georgia by freely moving substantial deployments of troops and equipment into the North Caucasus.


"What Russia really wants is essentially to be able to do as it pleases in world affairs and to answer to nobody," Blank said. "It wants a totally free hand, particularly in and around the CIS. It also needs to conjure up the idea of an enemy to justify its regime. The fact of the matter is that the most immediate threat here is to Georgia, because the Russian government could pack forces into the North Caucasus to threaten Georgia."


Strengthened Ties


Russia's provocations became more pronounced after the NATO summit, with Putin -- in the last month of his presidency -- signing on April 16 a decree authorizing the Russian government to strengthen diplomatic and aid links with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia's pro-Moscow separatist provinces.


Later that month, Russia deployed 1,500 additional troops, some heavily armed, to its "peacekeeping" contingent in Abkhazia without Georgia's consent. The move was an express violation of a 1994 cease-fire agreement ending a brief but grievous civil war between Abkhaz and Georgian fighters.


In the weeks that followed, Georgia accused Russia of shooting down unmanned drone aircraft conducting reconnaissance flights over Abkhazia. Russian military aircraft were also detected violating Georgian airspace near the separatist territory.


In June, Russia stoked tensions yet again by deploying unarmed troops to Abkhazia to rebuild a rail link between the cities of Sukhumi and Ochamchira. Moscow argued the move was a humanitarian gesture meant to improve the territory's decrepit transportation infrastructure.


But Matthew Bryza, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, now argues the move was used to move military supplies into Georgia.


"We heard statements that the Russian railroad troops that had entered Abkhazia a couple of months ago were there on a humanitarian mission. And now we know the truth about why those forces were there. It was to rebuild the railroad to allow ammunition and other military supplies to aid a Russian invasion," Bryza told reporters in Tbilisi on August 11.


Predicting An Invasion


And then came Russia's Kavkaz-2008 military exercises in the North Caucasus in late July. Speaking at the time, Felgenhauer suggested the maneuvers -- which coincided with U.S.-led training of forces in Georgia -- might forecast a Russian invasion of Georgia as soon as August.


"I am afraid that there is a very strong possibility that military activity will happen this year, probably in the next month," Felgenhauer told RFE/RL's North Caucasus Service. "We could have a full-scale military conflict."


But with all eyes on Abkhazia, the focus abruptly shifted to South Ossetia, where days of clashes across the de facto border with Georgia erupted in early August. Moscow accused Tbilisi of using excessive force; Georgia, meanwhile, accused Russian-backed separatists in the region of firing into Georgian-controlled villages. Each side accused the other of initiating the violence.


Blank, who predicted trouble for Georgia over a year ago, now says Moscow was confidently ramping up the level of provocations in South Ossetia. "This is a war that Russia wanted, and clearly had planned for," he added.


"The evidence I've seen indicates that the Russian Army was sitting there waiting for this, that this was essentially a provocation launched by the South Ossetians, who ratcheted up the level of violence in order to bring the Georgians -- who are easily provokable, obviously -- to attack," Blank said. "And the Russians were waiting there, ready with an operational plan and with forces in place -- land, sea and air -- to do what they have subsequently done."


After days of clashes, Georgia moved into South Ossetia on August 7 in a large-scale operation to regain control of the Moscow-backed separatist region. The offensive sparked a furious reaction from Russia, which sent in troops, military aircraft, and tanks to repel Georgian forces. (Russia assert that it entered South Ossetia nearly a day after Georgia's advance; officials in Tbilisi counter that Russian troops were already moving into South Ossetia before Georgian forces entered the province.)


'Difficult To Imagine'


Not everyone is prepared to endorse the notion of a premeditated, orchestrated war by Russia. Aleksandr Golts, a Moscow-based defense analyst, says the timing of the conflict, which came at a time when the country's leadership was absent from the capital -- President Dmitry Medvedev was in the Volga region and Putin was attending the Olympics in Beijing -- does not suggest the event was planned in advance.


"It is difficult to imagine that Russia prepared such a provocation while neither of the country's two leaders was in Moscow," Golts said. "It is [also] difficult to imagine that Russia prepared to go to war and then, when Saakashvili fell into the trap, waited 13 or 14 hours, by my count, before deploying forces."


But regardless of whether the war was prefabricated, says Golts, the blame remains squarely with the Kremlin. "Russia's policies over the past several years caused this war. And for this they bear responsibility."


Editor's Note: RFE/RL's Georgian, Russian, North Caucasus, and Tatar-Bashkir services contributed to this report. RFE/RL correspondent Heather Maher contributed from Washington.

interesting analyses


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Ann from Russia - 08-16-2008

This is a tale of US expansion not Russian aggressionWar in the Caucasus is as much the product of an American imperial drive as local conflicts. It's likely to be a taste of things to comeAll comments ()
Seumas Milne The Guardian, Thursday August 14 2008 The outcome of six grim days of bloodshed in the Caucasus has triggered an outpouring of the most nauseating hypocrisy from western politicians and their captive media. As talking heads thundered against Russian imperialism and brutal disproportionality, US vice-president Dick Cheney, faithfully echoed by Gordon Brown and David Miliband, declared that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered". George Bush denounced Russia for having "invaded a sovereign neighbouring state" and threatening "a democratic government". Such an action, he insisted, "is unacceptable in the 21st century".

Could these by any chance be the leaders of the same governments that in 2003 invaded and occupied - along with Georgia, as luck would have it - the sovereign state of Iraq on a false pretext at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives? Or even the two governments that blocked a ceasefire in the summer of 2006 as Israel pulverised Lebanon's infrastructure and killed more than a thousand civilians in retaliation for the capture or killing of five soldiers?

You'd be hard put to recall after all the fury over Russian aggression that it was actually Georgia that began the war last Thursday with an all-out attack on South Ossetia to "restore constitutional order" - in other words, rule over an area it has never controlled since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nor, amid the outrage at Russian bombardments, have there been much more than the briefest references to the atrocities committed by Georgian forces against citizens it claims as its own in South Ossetia's capital Tskhinvali. Several hundred civilians were killed there by Georgian troops last week, along with Russian soldiers operating under a 1990s peace agreement: "I saw a Georgian soldier throw a grenade into a basement full of women and children," one Tskhinvali resident, Saramat Tskhovredov, told reporters on Tuesday.

Might it be because Georgia is what Jim Murphy, Britain's minister for Europe, called a "small beautiful democracy". Well it's certainly small and beautiful, but both the current president, Mikheil Saakashvili, and his predecessor came to power in western-backed coups, the most recent prettified as a "Rose revolution". Saakashvili was then initially rubber-stamped into office with 96% of the vote before establishing what the International Crisis Group recently described as an "increasingly authoritarian" government, violently cracking down on opposition dissent and independent media last November. "Democratic" simply seems to mean "pro-western" in these cases.

The long-running dispute over South Ossetia - as well as Abkhazia, the other contested region of Georgia - is the inevitable consequence of the breakup of the Soviet Union. As in the case of Yugoslavia, minorities who were happy enough to live on either side of an internal boundary that made little difference to their lives feel quite differently when they find themselves on the wrong side of an international state border.

Such problems would be hard enough to settle through negotiation in any circumstances. But add in the tireless US promotion of Georgia as a pro-western, anti-Russian forward base in the region, its efforts to bring Georgia into Nato, the routing of a key Caspian oil pipeline through its territory aimed at weakening Russia's control of energy supplies, and the US-sponsored recognition of the independence of Kosovo - whose status Russia had explicitly linked to that of South Ossetia and Abkhazia - and conflict was only a matter of time.

The CIA has in fact been closely involved in Georgia since the Soviet collapse. But under the Bush administration, Georgia has become a fully fledged US satellite. Georgia's forces are armed and trained by the US and Israel. It has the third-largest military contingent in Iraq - hence the US need to airlift 800 of them back to fight the Russians at the weekend. Saakashvili's links with the neoconservatives in Washington are particularly close: the lobbying firm headed by US Republican candidate John McCain's top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, has been paid nearly $900,000 by the Georgian government since 2004.

But underlying the conflict of the past week has also been the Bush administration's wider, explicit determination to enforce US global hegemony and prevent any regional challenge, particularly from a resurgent Russia. That aim was first spelled out when Cheney was defence secretary under Bush's father, but its full impact has only been felt as Russia has begun to recover from the disintegration of the 1990s.

Over the past decade, Nato's relentless eastward expansion has brought the western military alliance hard up against Russia's borders and deep into former Soviet territory. American military bases have spread across eastern Europe and central Asia, as the US has helped install one anti-Russian client government after another through a series of colour-coded revolutions. Now the Bush administration is preparing to site a missile defence system in eastern Europe transparently targeted at Russia.

By any sensible reckoning, this is not a story of Russian aggression, but of US imperial expansion and ever tighter encirclement of Russia by a potentially hostile power. That a stronger Russia has now used the South Ossetian imbroglio to put a check on that expansion should hardly come as a surprise. What is harder to work out is why Saakashvili launched last week's attack and whether he was given any encouragement by his friends in Washington.

If so, it has spectacularly backfired, at savage human cost. And despite Bush's attempts to talk tough yesterday, the war has also exposed the limits of US power in the region. As long as Georgia proper's independence is respected - best protected by opting for neutrality - that should be no bad thing. Unipolar domination of the world has squeezed the space for genuine self-determination and the return of some counterweight has to be welcome. But the process of adjustment also brings huge dangers. If Georgia had been a member of Nato, this week's conflict would have risked a far sharper escalation. That would be even more obvious in the case of Ukraine - which yesterday gave a warning of the potential for future confrontation when its pro-western president threatened to restrict the movement of Russian ships in and out of their Crimean base in Sevastopol. As great power conflict returns, South Ossetia is likely to be only a taste of things to come


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Mariam - 08-16-2008

independent Wrote:
Mariam Wrote:to "Indefendent" - You said you are finish guy. Well, well, Doesno't look like. Just one quesiton to you:

Didi you see couple of minutes ago BBC news? Did you see what journalist say? Did you see wounded babies, ladies, men, which were took today to the hospital? So what is your comments? DId you trus t this information? Now you see that ceasefire agreement does not work?

Indeed not from the beginning - but Yes I saw it. I didn't insist thet there is nothing going on - and Yes
I believe that there are victims. I also know that it is common that violence belongs to every military conflict.
It is called War - remember ?
But You should also know that expect soldiers there are always rude people who just utilize the situation.

WAr is over - as medvedev said. But still they are shooting and bombing our people and territory./ This is a different. But russdian are liers. Ruzvelt said that their words have as much values as the paper which is signed by them. That is common and tipycal for russians and russian politics.

I also saw STT (Finnish News agency) videos from S-Ossaatia (Tskhinvali) - and believe me: it was prety
bad. Also Our Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb was wisiting those areas after meeting with Saakashvili
few days ago.So we got our own man there before correspondents - for me his opinion is pretty creditable.

Subb was here. He gave an interview and said that situation was amzed in Gori. Imagine everyone is saying about Gori, but what is happening beneathe the Gori is most horrible. Killed people are in the streets and this russian peacekeeper militarist don;t allow anybody to enter there and bring died people. Frenc foriegn affars minister and his Estonian colleague were in Gori and they were amaed with those facts which they saw there.

But If You really are from Georgia - I'm very interested to hear Your opinion of one thing:
Hypotically:
If for You comes absolutely clear that Georgia really did attack Tskhinvali first - and that more than
1000 civilians died there under Your army fire - and that this fire was targetted directly to civilian objects.
Does it change Your opinion about Your government ? Or do You also after that think Russians are
doing wrong ?

I really appreciate if You answer honestly ! Smile

Before the fire - the real war was open, KOkoiti, his russian supporters and his band during 1,5 month ago made an intensive propaganda on the territory. Each day it was broadcasted how he militerized and traind people for war. Everything was planned. THey provoked (increase the level of provocation, becouse they are playing on the nerves of local residentsfor 15 years) us whith making fire from their villages, killing some people, burning the houses, so the temperature was increasing. it was lasting for 1 week. We did not answer. They did not stop/ NOw tell me how long we have to be quite? Should not we habe to protects our citizens as liliput medvedev is saying?

The case is not in government. I did not vote for Saakashvili. But majority voted for him and we have to respect. It si not anybodies issue, accept Georgian to decide who the president of Gerogia will be. Russian, with its strategy united Georgian with different political veiws, and now there is unbilivible patiotizem and highest social responsibility toward the country, its government and refugess. This is the collapse of russian politics planned for Georgia. I think I declared.


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - independent - 08-16-2008

IamGEORGIA Wrote:One of the most important thing today is, who supports russia today...
lets start
First of all it is Fidel castro..Of course it can not be taken seriosuly his support..
Then it comes Hugo chaves.. :haha Politician who has no political weight at all..
Who else?
Maybe Jirinovski? Clown :haha

I do not remeber anyone else..

Who supports Georgia?
Long list: When russian jets were bombing our country five president arrived in Tbilisi: UKraine, Lithuania, POland, Estonia, France, PM of latvia, next days Condoleezza Rice, PM of Turkey, EU and UN delegations, Foreign minister of several countries, on monay Angela merkel Arrives..There is also planned for next week visit of Gordon Brown...
Huge support!
Now think, who are they blaming for this conflict...

Your list is overly optimistic. You know most of EL is indeed backing Russia - only exception is Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland and Sweden partly. US gives impression they are backing You, but for them it all about business. So You really got endorsement only from ex-sovjet countries. They have their own reasons to support
You.


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Mariam - 08-16-2008

Ann from Russia Wrote:IamGEORGIA, можно я напишу по-русски? (так быстрее) Я очень сочувствую и понимаю Вас. Просто поймите и нас. Я хочу, чтобы Вы ответили на один вопрос: мы на этом форуме разговариваем для чего? Для того, чтобы изливать друг на друга свою злость или попытаться вместе понять подробности этой трагедии? Я, как и Вы, как и все остальные люди России, Грузии и всего мира - жертвы средств массовой информации, от этого просто никуда не денешься. Я знаю теперь Вашу точку зрения, я хочу, чтобы Вы обратили внимания на мою. Я не призываю Вас ее принять, а лишь только прислушаться. Я, скажу честно, не виню грузинский народ. Я всегда уважала и вас и армяней. Люди всегда, во все времена были игрушками в руках правителей. Сейчас в мире идет информационная война. Это-факт. Каждый день всплывают новые и новые подробности... Хочу лишь объяснить, зачем русские начали атаковать Грузинские войска в Цхинвали. Все дело в том, повторяю, что в Осетии более 80% граждан Российской Федерации. Россия по Конституции должна их защищать, где бы они не находились! Здесь у меня пауза. Тут как раз и начинается вопрос, кто же тогда первый начал. Скажу: судите сами. Но тот факт, что в Россию бежали более 30 000 осетин остается фактом.

YOu said that they are your citizens. So it is normal they run to russia. Though in Georgia we have som refugees with small ethnic OSetians and Russians as well.


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - IamGEORGIA - 08-16-2008

Ann from Russia Wrote:IamGEORGIA, можно я напишу по-русски? (так быстрее) Я очень сочувствую и понимаю Вас. Просто поймите и нас. Я хочу, чтобы Вы ответили на один вопрос: мы на этом форуме разговариваем для чего? Для того, чтобы изливать друг на друга свою злость или попытаться вместе понять подробности этой трагедии? Я, как и Вы, как и все остальные люди России, Грузии и всего мира - жертвы средств массовой информации, от этого просто никуда не денешься. Я знаю теперь Вашу точку зрения, я хочу, чтобы Вы обратили внимания на мою. Я не призываю Вас ее принять, а лишь только прислушаться. Я, скажу честно, не виню грузинский народ. Я всегда уважала и вас и армяней. Люди всегда, во все времена были игрушками в руках правителей. Сейчас в мире идет информационная война. Это-факт. Каждый день всплывают новые и новые подробности... Хочу лишь объяснить, зачем русские начали атаковать Грузинские войска в Цхинвали. Все дело в том, повторяю, что в Осетии более 80% граждан Российской Федерации. Россия по Конституции должна их защищать, где бы они не находились! Здесь у меня пауза. Тут как раз и начинается вопрос, кто же тогда первый начал. Скажу: судите сами. Но тот факт, что в Россию бежали более 30 000 осетин остается фактом.

I wont answer in russian...
Well, i cant understand one thing: why do you think that georgian people do not want to re union our country?
In this, we all, absolutely, all support our government and our President Saakashvili..Its our choice..
Citizens..come onn...everybody know what kind of citizens are they..Some of them even did not know that they had russian passports..
Georgia, according to its Constitution, must defend its citize4ns as well, especially when something happens on our own teritorry..Separatists were killing inncoent people in nearby villages..so georgia should hve reacte, as it reacted..there was no choice..
If some rights of your citizens were violates in PAris, Londond, New York, or wherevem sould you start the war?
Would you?
Ot if its georgia, you can do anything you want? Noway..
That fact that 30 000 people are reffuges from Ossetia in Tbilisi is also fact..And there are additional 40 000 refugges form the cities rusiian troops are standing now (Senaki, Kodory Gorge, Zugdidi, Gori)..
This is the truth..
In kodory gorge (abkhazia) there were no russian citzen..why they bombed Kodori and took iot under control..?
Answer to me, why?


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - independent - 08-16-2008

Mariam Wrote:to "Indefendent" - You said you are finish guy. Well, well, Doesno't look like. Just one quesiton to you:

Didi you see couple of minutes ago BBC news? Did you see what journalist say? Did you see wounded babies, ladies, men, which were took today to the hospital? So what is your comments? DId you trus t this information? Now you see that ceasefire agreement does not work?

Indeed not from the beginning - but Yes I saw it. I didn't insist thet there is nothing going on - and Yes
I believe that there are victims. I also know that it is common that violence belongs to every military conflict.
It is called War - remember ?
But You should also know that expect soldiers there are always rude people who just utilize the situation.

I also saw STT (Finnish News agency) videos from S-Ossaatia (Tskhinvali) - and believe me: it was prety
bad. Also Our Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb was visiting those areas after meeting with Saakashvili
few days ago.So we got our own man there before correspondents - for me his opinion is pretty creditable.

But If You really are from Georgia - I'm very interested to hear Your opinion of one thing:
Hypotically:
If for You comes absolutely clear that Georgia really did attack Tskhinvali first - and that more than
1000 civilians died there under Your army fire - and that this fire was targetted directly to civilian objects.
Does it change Your opinion about Your government ? Or do You also after that think Russians are
doing wrong ?

I really appreciate if You answer honestly ! Smile


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - georgian - 08-16-2008

russians get out from georgia and take KOKOITI with u i think russians love this man.


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Hakan G - 08-16-2008

georgian Wrote:russians get out from georgia and take KOKOITI with u i think russians love this man.

What does "KOKOITI" mean? I hope it's nothing explicit. :?


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - IamGEORGIA - 08-16-2008

No it means Criminal Separatist.. Confuseduper

Kokity Fandarast


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - georgian - 08-16-2008

for this russian come to georgia? to kil georgian citizens and run them down from ossetia? there are only fashists in your gevroment. GET OUT FROM GEORGIA!!!!!!


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - Tamar - 08-16-2008

I just have one question: What is Russia doing far from the Confilct Zones in Georgia at the moment? Are there any Russian civilians whom it needs to defend and thus bombs the central sreets of Gori, explodes the railways and bridges, loots the main Gergian Port - Poti? Why is not it withdrawing and moreover imposes curfew, I am just interested: does this curfew will be kept by the russian looters as well?


Re: Georgia and South Ossetia at war - IamGEORGIA - 08-16-2008

Rest in Peace Georgian Patriot.. Cry

We will never forgive these occupants your blood..



Of course you do not kill ordinary people..
they are real bastards..